山梨大学大学院総合研究部医学域 社会医学講座

社会医学講座 | 山梨大学医学部

Department of Health Sciences,Basic Science for Clinical Medicine,
Division of Medicine, Graduate School Department of Interdisciplinary Research,
University of Yamanashi


トップページ ジャーナルクラブ通信バックナンバー検索 2022.9.7

2022年9月7日    担当:ソン

Development of a clinical prediction model for perinatal deaths in low resource settings
出典: eClinicalMedicine. 2022 Feb 7; 44: 101288
著者: Natasha Housseine, Marcus J Rijken, Katinka Weller, Nassra Haroub Nassor, Joyce L Browne et al.

The aims of the study were:
• Performing external validation of an existing prediction model
• Developing a new model
for early identifing women at risk of perinatal deaths in low and middle income countries.

Data are come from a prospective cohort study coducted in the Republic of Tanzania - Africa, and included 5747 mother-baby pairs. Of these,
• Predictors are maternal and fetal characteristics
• Outcomes are intrapartum stillbirths and neonatal death before hospital discharge.
The existing model comprises 6 predictors. Its performance is evaluated in terms of discrimination and
By using multivariate logistic regression, the new model is developed. Its performance is evaluated through
internal validation and boostraping methods.

The existing model has poor discrimination (C-statistic 0.57). The new model includes 15 predictiors and
shows better discrimination and calibration (C-statistic 0.78 and calibration slope 0.94, after internal

The new model has good performance and includes predictors that are easily obatined. However, future
studies needs to be carried out to assess external validation and model usefulness.